Whale Selling Sparks Volatility, Dovish Outlook Rises, Hashrate Hits New Highs

Key Points

• Price: Bitcoin experienced intense fluctuations this week. Supported by dovish signals from the Fed, BTC once surged to nearly $117,000, then plunged below $110,000 following a 24,000 BTC whale sell-off, reaching a low of around $108,890. It later rebounded to stabilize above $110,000.
• Network Hashrate: Bitcoin’s total network hashrate continues rapid growth, fluctuating between 900–980 EH/s this week, approaching historical highs, reflecting ongoing miner activity.
• Mining Difficulty: Current difficulty stands at approximately 129.70 T, up ~0.2% on August 22, setting a new record. The next adjustment is expected on September 5, with a projected increase of 4–5%.
• Macro: Dovish signals from the Jackson Hole meeting lifted market sentiment, while President Trump’s dismissal of a Fed board member raised concerns over central bank independence. Moderate inflation and weak employment data have increased market expectations for a rate cut within the year.
• Industry: Whale selling triggered chain reactions in the market, liquidating over $500M long contracts; US mining mergers and IPOs remain active; Bitcoin Asia 2025 was successfully held in Hong Kong.

1. Market Overview

1) BTC Price Trend
Bitcoin’s price rose, fell, and stabilized over the week.

Analysis: Supported by Powell’s speech, BTC surged to $117,000 but dropped sharply to $108,890 following a 24,000 BTC whale sell-off. It later rebounded and stabilized above $110,000, resulting in limited weekly losses.

2) Network Hashrate
The network hashrate remained between 900–980 EH/s, near historical highs. The continued rise indicates miner confidence, though competition is compressing per-unit mining profitability.

3) Mining Difficulty
Current difficulty is 129.70 T, up ~0.2% on August 22, setting a new record. The next adjustment is expected on September 5, with an estimated increase of 4–5%. High difficulty poses challenges for high-cost miners.

2. Market Dive

1) Price–Output Relation
Price fluctuations pressured miner revenue. Daily revenue per PH fell from ~$57.5/PH/day to $53/PH/day, a nearly 4% drop. Marginal miners face tighter profit margins, with some high-energy machines near breakeven, while top miners rely on scale and efficient equipment to maintain profitability.

2) Hashrate Trend Analysis
Drivers for the continued hashrate increase include deployment of efficient new machines, large-scale miner expansion, and high BTC prices fostering positive expectations. Rising hashrate strengthens network security but intensifies an “arms race” in mining, increasing industry concentration and forcing weaker miners to exit.

3) Cloud Mining Market Prices
Cloud mining prices showed slight adjustments this week. Some providers lowered per-unit mining prices by ~4%. If BTC remains stable, short-term demand for cloud mining products is likely to stay active.

3. News & Events

Macro: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech conveyed dovish signals, suggesting rate cuts if downside risks rise, lifting the market’s expectation of a September cut to ~90%. Meanwhile, Trump’s dismissal of Fed board member Cook raised concerns over central bank independence. Investors should monitor economic data closely; if PCE is moderate, crypto markets may see sharp rebounds. During this period of divergence, low-entry buying and timely stop-losses after disappointing data are advised.

Industry: A weekend whale sale of 24,000 BTC triggered a flash crash, liquidating over $500M long contracts, highlighting concentration risk. In capital markets, American Bitcoin plans a NASDAQ backdoor listing, showing traditional capital entering mining. Additionally, Eric Trump, Trump’s son, stated at Bitcoin Asia in Hong Kong that China is a globally powerful country and a significant force in cryptocurrency.