Bitcoin returns to $90,000, are bottom signals emerging?

💡 Weekly Bit Insight

• [Improved Market Sentiment] The growing expectation of a Fed rate cut (market estimates an approximately 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December) boosted confidence in risk assets. The US Dollar weakened, and US stocks rose for several consecutive days, driving Bitcoin to rebound from its sharp drop last weekend.
• [Price Rebound] The Bitcoin price briefly recovered from a low of around $80,000 to surpass the $90,000 mark, suggesting a restoration of confidence in the on-chain and trading markets.
• [Hashrate and Difficulty Drop] The total network hashrate and mining difficulty pulled back from their highs, and the hashrate price rebounded from its low, easing the pressure on miners' income to some extent.
• [Mining Stock Recovery] The rebounding Bitcoin price pushed up the stock prices of listed mining companies, accelerating the industry's exploration of diversified paths, such as AI computing power and energy sales.

I. Market Overview

Price

Bitcoin's price explored a low before rebounding this week, with intense volatility. Due to the lingering effects of last weekend's sell-off, the price briefly dropped to an intraday low of approximately $83,500 on November 22. Subsequently, supported by macro rate-cut expectations and technical buying, the market trend moved upward, breaking above $92,000 on November 28.

Hashrate and Difficulty

The Bitcoin network hashrate showed a slight pullback. The 7-day average hashrate decreased from a peak of 1.12 ZH in early November to 1.06 ZH/s. Affected by the declining hashrate, the difficulty adjusted downward by 1.95% to 149.30 T on November 27. This marks the first time since June this year that the mining difficulty has decreased twice consecutively. The downward turn in difficulty helps relieve pressure on miners.

Transaction Fee

Transaction fees declined this week, with the transaction fee per block dropping by 20% from 0.025 BTC to 0.02 BTC. Transaction fees accounted for approximately 0.07% of the total block reward.

🎯 Bit View

Bitcoin's price saw a technical rebound this week. From a miner's perspective, the price had previously fallen below the breakeven point, increasing the risk of widespread machine shutdowns. The consecutive difficulty adjustments indicate that some miners were forced to exit. Coupled with the price recovery to near $90,000$, the industry is expected to enter a period of bottom consolidation.

II. Market Analysis

Hashprice

The Bitcoin Hashprice bottomed out this week before rebounding from $35/PH/s/day to $39/PH/s/day, slightly improving the unit hashrate profitability for miners.

Cloud Mining

Sentiment in the cloud mining market improved this week. Prices for some cloud mining products saw a slight increase following the Bitcoin price. For instance, for a 180-day product, if an investor purchases a 180-day cloud mining product on the Bit platform, the mining price is $0.037/T/day. This is noticeably lower than the hashprice, suggesting that cloud mining products are currently more competitive.

Industry

Multiple U.S. government departments are conducting a national security investigation into the leading Chinese mining machine manufacturer, Bitmain. The probe is assessing whether Bitmain's equipment contains technology that could be remotely controlled for intelligence gathering or the disruption of critical infrastructure.

While the issue targets supply chain security, it reflects how geopolitical factors are influencing the mining landscape—the U.S. may implement stricter controls on the import and use of high-end mining machines in the future to protect domestic technology and infrastructure security. This trend warrants close attention from miners both domestically and internationally.

🎯 Bit View

The Hashprice directly affects traditional mining profitability, and the U.S. investigation into the mining machine supply chain has raised compliance and localization requirements. Overall, the mining industry is shifting from a sole focus on mining to a refined, diversified business model. Only miners who actively transform and operate efficiently will survive this intense shakeout.

III. News and Events

Capital Influx: Mining Stocks Rebound, AI Strategy as a Valuation Catalyst

The crypto mining sector collectively recovered this week after earlier major declines, with the stock prices of several top listed mining companies generally rising, some by over 10%. This rebound was driven not only by the recovery of the Bitcoin price but also by positive institutional research reports. JPMorgan (JPM) raised the price targets for three miners—CleanSpark, Cipher, and IREN—pointing out the sector's significant long-term growth potential in High-Performance Computing (HPC) and cloud computing services.

🎯Bit View: Companies embracing diversified computing power and actively scaling their hashrate are becoming more favored. The rebound in mining stocks also indicates that the secondary market may be pre-positioning for a valuation recovery, anticipating the stabilization and rise of the Bitcoin price.

Others

Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Turnaround: After weeks of net outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of approximately $129 million last week, indicating that long-term capital is starting to buy the dip and the pace of passive investor withdrawal is slowing.

Deepened Miner-Energy Partnerships: Some mining companies are strengthening cooperation with energy companies, signing direct power purchase agreements and participating in grid demand response programs to lower electricity costs and ensure stable operations during severe weather.

Technological Progress: Bitcoin Layer 2 scaling solutions and mining pool protocols are progressing. This week, some mining pools announced testing support for Ordinals protocol functions related to BRC-20 tokens, exploring new income streams beyond transaction fees.