BTC in the 1 ZH/s Era: Difficulty Peaks, Miners Squeezed Again

Bitcoin Hashrate Market Weekly Report (Sep 13–19, 2025)

Key Highlights

• Key Highlights
• Price: With the rate cut implemented, the market first dipped then rebounded, holding above $115,000 throughout the week. After the Fed’s 25bp cut, Bitcoin briefly pulled back but quickly recovered, maintaining an upward channel between $115,000–118,000. The next key resistance lies at $120,000.
• Hashrate & Difficulty: Stable at 1 ZH/s with mining difficulty rising to ~142.3T, further squeezing marginal miners. The 7-day average hashrate remained at ZH-level. On Sept 18, difficulty adjusted higher again, pushing unit hashrate output lower. High efficiency and cheap electricity are now survival thresholds.
• Macro: The Fed dot plot suggests further rate cuts are possible this year, with messaging focused on “growth stability and downside risk prevention.” While the cut is confirmed, the Fed emphasized risk management and employment downside concerns, fueling expectations for further easing but at a gentler pace.
• Industry: DOGE/XRP spot ETFs officially launched trading, expanding regulated channels and sparking incremental competition. In the short term, watch capital inflows and trading activity; in the medium term, the impact depends on scale and liquidity.

I. Market Overview

1) BTC Price

Bitcoin traded within the $115,000–118,000 range this week. On Sept 18, following the Fed’s 25bp rate cut, BTC first dipped but quickly rebounded to around $117,000, showing strong dip-buying under easing expectations. Net inflows and a friendlier policy backdrop supported the recovery, though the pace of upward movement slowed due to cautious Fed guidance.

2) Network Hashrate

Hashrate remained elevated, with the 7-day average firmly above 1 ZH/s. Expansion by large mining firms and deployment of efficient ASICs continued to be the main drivers. With winter approaching, higher power costs and regional supply uncertainties may add seasonal volatility to hashrates.

3) Mining Difficulty

On Sept 18, mining difficulty adjusted upward again to ~142.3T, an increase of more than 8% compared to ~4.63% in the prior adjustment. Difficulty remains near historic highs. Meanwhile, transaction fees fell by over 20% from last week. If fee revenue fails to offset, unit hashrate revenue will remain under pressure. In this environment, the relative advantage of high-efficiency machines and low-cost electricity becomes even more critical.

II. Market Analysis

1) Price–Output Dynamics

At the current $115,000–117,000 range, the industry-wide average all-in cost of mining 1 BTC is estimated at $95,000–105,000. Most industrial-scale miners still enjoy modest profit margins. Hashprice in USD terms held at $51–53/PH/day, slightly down from earlier levels. With fee revenue contribution low, miner profitability remains highly sensitive to both BTC price and difficulty. Historically, when margins approach breakeven, weaker capacity tends to exit, reducing selling pressure and stabilizing price action.

2) Hashrate Trends

Hashrate stability at ZH-levels is driven by:

1. Capital expenditures and facility expansions by leading mining firms.
2. Continued iteration of new, efficient ASICs.

In the short run, difficulty increases and seasonal electricity price rises will continue to squeeze marginal producers. In the medium-to-long run, advantages in scale, low-cost power, and automated operations will consolidate further among top-tier miners.

3) Cloud Mining Market Prices

This week, cloud mining prices remained largely stable. Short-term contracts saw limited downward adjustment (~1%), while mid- to long-term contracts held steady. Short-term unit mining prices remain highly competitive.

III. News & Events

• Fed FOMC Meeting – cautious easing signal. On Sept 18, the Fed cut the federal funds target range by 25bp to 4.00%–4.25%, while stressing “risk management” and employment downside risks in its statement and press conference. The dot plot indicates further rate cuts remain possible this year, albeit at a slower pace. BTC dipped initially but rebounded, reflecting strong liquidity-driven demand.While rate cuts are generally seen as liquidity-positive, the Fed’s cautious stance suggests capital inflows will be gradual rather than explosive. For miners—who rely heavily on debt financing for ASIC procurement and infrastructure—borrowing costs will decline slowly. This offers some financial relief, but also calls for caution in expansion planning.
• Non-mainstream spot ETFs listed – regulatory progress accelerates. The launch of two spot crypto ETFs by REX-Osprey (DOGE and XRP) on Cboe BZX marked a step forward for compliance. Combined day-one trading volume reached ~$55M, with XRP ETF accounting for $37.7M, making it one of the strongest natural debuts for a new fund this year. This reflects unexpectedly high investor interest beyond BTC/ETH.Meanwhile, CME announced plans to launch XRP and SOL futures/options on Oct 13, pending regulatory review.The introduction of new ETFs and derivatives may attract short-term inflows and shift investor attention across crypto assets. In the longer run, broader regulated access to altcoins signals a healthier market structure. For miners, CME-listed hedging tools will help manage BTC inventory risks and smooth revenue volatility, strengthening operational resilience.