Manufacturing Collapse + Consumer Resilience
BTC is caught between easing expectations and sticky inflation.
The NY Fed manufacturing index plunged to -8.7, showing significant contraction in industrial activity; retail sales remained at +0.5%, reflecting steady consumption; 5-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, highlighting persistent inflation. Markets are convinced the Fed will begin rate cuts, but inflation pressures limit the scale. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields fell back to 4%, the dollar weakened, and real rates declined. For BTC, lower real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yield assets, while dollar depreciation strengthens BTC’s store-of-value logic. This explains why BTC is oscillating between 115K–117K: benefiting from “easing support” yet constrained by “inflation pressure.”

Dovish = Breakout? Hawkish = Dive?
BTC’s fate comes down to this night.
Markets have already priced in a 25bp cut with over 95% probability. If a stronger dovish signal emerges (hinting at continued cuts ahead or a minority favoring 50bp), the dollar weakens, real rates decline, and BTC may break its previous high. If it’s only 25bp with cautious rhetoric, the dollar could rebound, putting short-term pressure on BTC. The true catalyst is the decision and press conference: if aligned with expectations, BTC may “rise first then fade”; if deviating, volatility could explode instantly. DVOL and BVOL have already climbed, signaling that capital is betting on turbulence.

A Politicized Voting Table
Cook secured, Miran enters — FOMC in disarray.
The court ruled that Lisa Cook retains voting rights, while the Senate confirmed Miran’s emergency appointment by a single vote. Cook was once seen as dovish, while Miran — criticized as “Trump’s shadow” due to joining directly from a White House leave — leans toward aggressive easing. These personnel changes increase uncertainty and raise concerns over the Fed’s independence. If the central bank is viewed as politicized, long-term inflation expectations may rise, lifting risk premia. BTC thus gains further value as “digital gold,” though near-term volatility will climb and demand for safety margins will increase.

BIT View
Three key dimensions: macro data, policy expectations, and personnel dynamics.
We assess that BTC remains in a mid-term uptrend. Even if the FOMC only cuts by 25bp, short-term volatility is inevitable, but the liquidity cycle has turned toward easing. The weaker dollar and falling real rates will continue to support BTC’s price. We see the key market direction as “upward,” though the path may be more bumpy. For investors, beyond holding BTC directly, cloud mining products offer an indirect way to participate in the BTC network — benefiting from both mining income and price appreciation. This strategy is more like a long-term bet on “digital gold,” while reducing the stress of market timing.

Disclaimer
The above is for market research and opinion sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please evaluate independently according to your risk tolerance.