Hashrate Hits Record, BTC Pulls Back — Bull Market or Illusion?
Key Points
Price Pullback Tests Bullish Confidence:
This week, Bitcoin price fluctuated downward, gradually falling from around $116,000 at the beginning of the week. On Friday (the 25th), it briefly dropped below $110,000, hitting a low near $109,000. The price came under pressure mainly due to strong US employment data and a strengthening US dollar, shifting market sentiment from a "bull market" expectation to a reduced "risk appetite."
Hashrate Reaches All-Time High:
On September 20, the total network hashrate broke historical records, reaching approximately 1.442 ZH/s, indicating miners remain optimistic about future market conditions. The current network difficulty is stable around 142.34T; the next difficulty adjustment is expected on October 2, likely increasing by about 6% to 150.89T.
Mixed Macro Drivers:
The Federal Reserve held its September meeting and, as expected, cut rates for the first time, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25%. However, the latest labor market data showed initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, preventing a sharp easing of rate hike expectations, causing the dollar to strengthen temporarily. The August core PCE inflation rate is expected at 2.9%, indicating inflation remains on a stable path. The interest rate market estimates a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in November and 75% in December.
Institutional Funds Remain Supportive:
Despite spot market pressure, institutional capital has not withdrawn. According to CoinShares, Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached as high as $977 million this week, accounting for 51% of inflows into crypto asset ETFs, showing sustained investor interest. On the regulatory front, the SEC approved new rules on September 18 to simplify the listing process for crypto spot ETFs, likely opening the door for more digital currencies in October.
Industry Developments Accelerate:
Mining companies are accelerating expansion. Applied Digital and Corewave signed agreements totaling 400MW in power leasing. Meanwhile, miners like HIVE are actively deploying renewable energy hashrate, leveraging the Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant in Paraguay to promote green mining.
I. Market Overview
1) BTC Price
Bitcoin opened this week around $115,700, initially fluctuating slightly before facing selling pressure. Stronger-than-expected US economic data released on Thursday boosted the dollar, causing Bitcoin to plunge sharply on Friday, down 3.8% to about $109,000. Historically, September tends to be a “red September” with cautious market sentiment this week forming a high-level pullback pattern. Short-term influencing factors include US initial jobless claims, core PCE inflation, Fed officials’ comments, and geopolitical events impacting market risk sentiment.
2) Network Hashrate
Global Bitcoin network hashrate continues to rise. CoinWarz data shows a record high of 1.442 ZH/s on September 20, with nearly 10% cumulative growth over the past 30 days, indicating active new site setups and equipment upgrades by miners. According to Bitget, next-generation efficient mining rigs and low-cost energy projects are accelerating hashrate growth, which is expected to remain high in the short term.
3) Mining Difficulty
Current difficulty is locked at 142.34T, remaining stable since the adjustment on September 19. Given the continued rise in hashrate, the next difficulty adjustment is expected to be significant, potentially rising about 6% to 150.89T. Recent 7-day and 30-day growth trends show difficulty entering an upward channel. Miners should monitor the increased pressure on profitability from rising hashrate.
II. Market Analysis
1) Price-Output Relationship
Bitcoin is currently trading within the $109K–$116K range, with Hashprice adjusting accordingly. Within this price range, even efficient rigs face the risk of compressed profits. Overall, miner output correlates positively with price: every 10% price drop pushes the breakeven point closer, prompting some high-cost miners to reduce production. In the short term, if Bitcoin price stabilizes or slightly rises, miner revenue can improve; otherwise, mining farms in high electricity cost regions will face significant profit pressure.
2) Hashrate Trend Analysis
Large mining companies are expanding hashrate aggressively via capital investment. American Bitcoin’s hashrate surged from 10 EH/s to 24 EH/s this year, partly due to deploying liquid-cooled rigs. The global mining industry is evolving towards a "hashrate-as-a-product" model, with integrated rigs, modular cabinets, and immersion cooling technologies improving expansion efficiency. Additionally, miners’ energy sources are diversifying; over 50% of Bitcoin hashrate now comes from renewable energy, mainly hydro and wind. For example, HIVE Blockchain uses power from Paraguay’s Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant, aiming to produce 3% of global hashrate. Low-carbon energy and stable electricity prices are key strategic focuses.
3) Cloud Mining Market Prices
Cloud mining prices declined this week, with short-term product prices falling more than 4% on average, while mid-to-long term prices saw slight corrections. Under the current BTC price environment, short-term products maintain strong market competitiveness in unit mining price. Investors should carefully assess fees, contract terms, and risks on each platform before purchasing to weigh potential returns against costs.
| Cloud Mining Product Duration | Average Price ($/T/day) |
|---|---|
| 30 days | 0.051 |
| 60 days | 0.053 |
| 90 days | 0.055 |
| 120 days | 0.055 |
| 180 days | 0.058 |
| 360 days | 0.059 |
III. News and Events
Federal Reserve and Macro Data:
Initial jobless claims this week dropped to 218,000, below expectations, signaling a tight labor market. However, this strength has raised concerns about the room for future rate cuts. August core PCE inflation data is expected to guide next week’s Fed monetary policy. Globally, Middle East tensions continue, boosting safe-haven demand for gold and the US dollar, indirectly pressuring digital assets.
Crypto Industry Updates:
On September 18, the US SEC approved new listing rules for broad crypto asset ETFs, paving the way for dozens of spot ETFs including Solana and XRP. Several asset managers are ready to launch digital currency ETFs, with official expectations to list the first batch as early as October. CoinShares reported Bitcoin ETF net inflows this week of $977 million, reflecting cautious optimism despite spot price pullbacks. Besides the SEC, the European Central Bank and other regulators are also discussing crypto asset frameworks, though no major policies emerged this week.
Mining and Technology Progress:
Mining expansions and technology upgrades accelerate. Applied Digital, a US hashrate provider, announced a 400MW power lease partnership with Corewave, introducing immersion cooling to boost deployment efficiency, expected to complete in 2026. IREN recently raised $268 million to procure high-performance NVIDIA latest-generation GPUs for cloud hashrate and AI business growth. These moves indicate large miners are actively investing in AI/high-performance computing sectors, leveraging power and cooling infrastructure. Moreover, global carbon neutrality trends and growing demand for renewable energy mining farms, particularly hydro and wind, have become capital priorities.
Other Industry Events:
No major black swan events occurred this week. Investors should watch for the September US nonfarm payroll report next week, which may influence expectations for the pace of rate cuts. Additionally, Q3 earnings season approaches for major mining companies in the US and Europe, with investors evaluating expansion plans and profitability.