Liquidity exhaustion, macro uncertainty, will mining difficulty be reduced?

Weekly Bit Insight

• Liquidation Storm. BTC loses $100K! The price fell below the $100,000 psychological defense line, triggering a market deleveraging. Over $2.7 billion in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated in just 48 hours. Simultaneously, approximately $190 million flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a liquidity drain.
• Macro Pressure. Government Shutdown Shadow: The potential "stillbirth" of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report due to the government shutdown, with the lack of crucial macro data further exacerbating market concerns and uncertainty over liquidity.
• Mining Difficulty. Negative Adjustment Expected! On-chain indicators forecast a rare negative adjustment for the next Bitcoin mining difficulty, driven by falling Hashprice. High-cost mining rigs are being forced to "shut down."
• DeFi Crisis. $116 Million Exploit! The Balancer protocol experienced a major security vulnerability, putting up to $116 million in assets at risk and once again severely damaging the trust foundation of the DeFi sector.
• Acceleration of Transition. US-listed Miners Q3 Earnings Highlight Computing Services (AI/HPC) Pivot. Computing services revenue for some miners now surpasses their traditional mining business, accelerating the strategic shift toward becoming integrated data center operators.

I. Market Overview

BTC Price

This week, Bitcoin's price underwent a major correction, the most significant since June, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from extreme optimism to panic. After oscillating around $110,000 last week, the price sharply broke down this week, falling below the crucial $100,000 psychological barrier.

The severe price drop directly impacted the leveraged market, triggering massive deleveraging. Data shows that during the correction, over $2.7 billion in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated within just 48 hours. This cascade of liquidations amplified the selling pressure from individual traders, accelerating the price decline. Simultaneously, risk-off sentiment led to institutional outflows, with nearly $190 million withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs. This indicates that, within the current market structure, Bitcoin is still viewed as a high-risk asset by mainstream investors.

Network Hashrate and Difficulty

The overall network hashrate quickly felt the pressure following the price crash, stabilizing around 1.15 ZH and failing to breach last week's high. The next mining difficulty adjustment is estimated for November 12, with a predicted adjustment range of -1.64% to -4.91%.

Transaction Fees

Transaction fees saw a leap of over 10% compared to the previous week. The average transaction fee per block (in BTC terms) briefly surpassed 0.02 BTC during the week, maintaining its share of miner's total revenue at around 0.6%.

II. Market Analysis

Price and Output

Under the combined pressure of BTC's price dipping below $100,000 and the network difficulty remaining at historic highs, Hashprice remains constrained.

Hashprice dropped from a low of approximately $43.3/PH/s/day last week to a low of $40.6/PH/s/day this week before rebounding. At current difficulty and coin price levels, the Hashprice is diverging from the difficulty. Analysis of miner profitability shows that based on a benchmark all-in electricity cost of $0.07/kWh, the break-even price for the once-dominant Antminer S21 is now over $72,000. Miners operating under this benchmark may face the risk of forced shutdowns.

Cloud Mining Market

The drop in the BTC price this week led to more cautious sentiment in the cloud mining market. The median nominal quote for 180-day cloud mining contracts remains around $0.0469/T/day. For instance, an investor purchasing a 180-day cloud mining product on the Bit platform would pay a mining price of $0.04/T/day. Simultaneously, Bit has launched a limited-time offer with a coin acquisition cost lower than $100,000.

Industry Trends

Global Government Resources Accelerate Entry into Mining, Bitcoin Mining Evolves into a Geostrategic Asset. The competitive landscape of the Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing a fundamental change, accelerating from being primarily driven by private capital to strategic deployment supported by national and governmental resources. Chart data indicates a significant increase in the number of countries utilizing government resources to sponsor Bitcoin mining, soaring from only 2 in 2020 (such as Bhutan and Iran) to approximately 11 in 2025, including major global economies like Russia, France, and Japan. This shift reflects a re-evaluation by governments of the essential nature of Bitcoin mining. Mining is no longer viewed merely as an energy consumer but is recognized as an infrastructural asset with strategic energy value.

III. News and Events

American Bitcoin (ABTC) Total BTC Holdings Surpass 4,000 Coins

American Bitcoin (ABTC), the Bitcoin mining company founded by Eric Trump, this week announced its total Bitcoin holdings have increased to approximately 4,004 coins following its listing via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, adding about 139 coins since October 24. This sustained "Mine-and-Hold" strategy is a crucial means for mining companies to hedge against price volatility and lock in long-term value. According to Bloomberg, Eric Trump's personal stake in ABTC is valued at up to $548 million. The Trump family is also reported to have earned over $800 million in profits from its cryptocurrency business in the first half of 2025.

Q3 2025 Earnings for US-Listed Mining Companies

US-listed Bitcoin mining companies released their Q3 2025 earnings this week. Market leaders such as Marathon (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK) both reported record revenues, with MARA achieving a net income of $123.1 million and CLSK reporting a net income of $257.4 million. However, the main theme of the quarter was the accelerated shift from pure Bitcoin production to high-value digital infrastructure. This transition was most evident in Cipher Mining (CIFR), which announced AI hosting contracts with AWS and Fluidstack/Google with total expected payments from these long-term leases reaching up to $8.5 billion, shifting its valuation toward a data center model. Similarly, Iris Energy (IREN) reported $148 million in Q3 revenue and strategically paused further Bitcoin mining expansion to focus capital on high-return liquid-cooled AI data centers. Reportedly, their cost per Bitcoin mined is only $41,000.