Miners "Bleeding" to Mine: Price Soars, Yet Revenue is Halved! Where are the Opportunities for Retail Miners?

Key Takeaways

This week, the Bitcoin price broke out strongly, driven by a convergence of capital inflows and shifting macroeconomic expectations. The price briefly touched a new all-time high of $126,000 intraday on October 6th before consolidating above the $120,000 mark. The immediate drivers were sustained net inflows into spot ETFs combined with heightened safe-haven and portfolio allocation demand stemming from the US government shutdown.

The network hashrate fundamentals continued to strengthen. The 7-day average hashrate remained stable at a high of 1.05–1.10 ZH/s. On October 2nd, the mining difficulty adjusted upward by 5.97% to 150.84 T, marking the seventh consecutive increase since July this year. Hashprice hovered around $50/PH/day, further compressing miners' revenue per unit of computing power.

The US federal government shutdown entered its second week. Operations at key agencies like the BLS are limited, raising the risk of delayed or incomplete critical data, such as Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI. The market is thus forced to price based on "expectations" rather than "facts." Without a data anchor, both the interest rate path and asset volatility are significantly amplified.

Publicly listed miners released September operating results, showing a clear divergence in strategy: Marathon produced 736 BTC, increasing its holdings to 52,850 BTC; CleanSpark produced 629 BTC and sold 445 BTC to fund expansion, with inventory still rising to 13,011 BTC; Riot produced 445 BTC and sold 465 BTC to maintain robust cash flow. The strategy of leading miners—a combination of "increased production + moderate selling"—poses limited short-term selling pressure on the market but reinforces the trend of hashrate oligopolistic concentration.

I. Market Overview

BTC Price

Bitcoin stabilized above $110,000 early in the week before surging on high volume. On October 6th, it hit a new all-time high of approximately $126,000 across multiple major USD spot trading pairs. The following two days saw intense back-and-forth price action around the $120,000 psychological level, with high-level profit-taking alternating with dip-buying, leading to a consolidation and exchange of hands within the $120,000–$123,000 range.

On the driver side, continuous net inflows into spot ETFs provided direct buying pressure; BlackRock's IBIT led the week's ETF net inflows, pulling in about $3.5 billion and recording a $900 million surge on October 8th alone. This, coupled with the US government shutdown amplifying bets on a "looser monetary environment," led to a co-ordinated safe-haven and allocation demand that pushed the price floor higher.

Network Hashrate

The network hashrate has settled into a ZH/s-level plateau, with the 7-day average across various tracking agencies sitting in the 1.05–1.10 ZH/s range, a further increase from the previous month. The immediate factors driving the hashrate strength include the mass deployment of new-generation high-efficiency ASICs, the return of capacity after the North American summer "peak-shaving" season, and the marginal cost advantage offered by a higher proportion of low-carbon power.

While the new hashrate high significantly increases the cost of a 51% attack and enhances network security, the passive decline in revenue per unit of hashrate—amid low transaction fee contributions—continues to put pressure on older mining rigs and high-electricity-cost farms.

Mining Difficulty

The routine difficulty adjustment on October 2nd saw a hike of 5.97% to 150.84 T. This is the seventh consecutive increase since July, fully reflecting the recent fast pace of hashrate growth and the quicker-than-target average block time. If the block time remains faster than the target over the next two weeks, the difficulty is likely to see further minor upward adjustments. The high difficulty level corresponds to Hashprice retreating to the ~ $50/PH/day line, creating a "new price high vs. diluted output" disparity. Profitability is now even more reliant on low electricity costs and high energy efficiency.

II. Market Analysis

Price and Production Relationship

At the $120,000 price point, miners' total revenue in fiat currency is supported by the price rally. However, due to the persistent difficulty increases and a moderate on-chain demand this week (transaction fee contribution did not rise significantly), Hashprice has not strengthened synchronously. This has raised the break-even point for marginal miners: based on common efficiency and electricity costs of $0.04–$0.05/kWh, the daily gross margin for older-generation machines is approaching "single-digit dollars/PH" or even lower. If the price retreats or the next difficulty adjustment is upward, the shutdown threshold will be quickly reached.

Historical data shows that Hashprice is only likely to move away from the "warning line" when weak capacity is forced out, transaction fees see a temporary increase, or the price breaks another key resistance level. Current-stage profit improvement depends on three main pathways: the price further consolidating above its previous high, on-chain activity boosting transaction fees, or a slowdown in the deployment of new hashrate.

Hashrate Trend and Industry Structure

On the supply side, leading miners are continuously expanding capacity, with new sites (immersion/liquid cooling solutions) coming online. The increasing proportion of green energy gives low-marginal-cost capacity the ability to continuously leverage growth. Financially, participation in electricity market demand response programs provides a "second income" for some North American farms, buffering peak electricity prices.

In terms of the competitive landscape, hashrate is further concentrating towards an oligopoly. While this statistically strengthens overall network stability, it raises discussions about decentralization and censorship resistance. The mid-to-long-term pace will be constrained by the "Power—Capital—ASICs Delivery" trifecta: any bottleneck in these links would slow the hashrate ramp-up and ease the slope of the difficulty increase, providing a temporary upside for profitability.

Cloud Mining Price vs. Futures Implied Price

This week, influenced by the BTC price, the cloud mining market price rebounded. The nominal median quote for a 180-day cloud mining contract was around $0.0512/TH/day (i.e., $51.2/PH/day). This price falls in the lower-to-middle part of the Hashprice spot trading range this week ($50.60–$52.60) but is still higher than both the current Hashprice spot average and the 6-month futures implied mean.

This structure exhibits a pricing characteristic where "Retail Premium > Futures Discount." The reason is that the cloud mining quote includes the service/fulfillment/uptime and risk premiums (i.e., operating costs and profit) provided by the farm provider, while Hashprice spot and futures only price the "gross revenue" (block subsidy + transaction fees) future average, which tends to be at a discount given the persistent difficulty increase and moderate transaction fees baseline. This observation is not a recommendation but can serve as a measurement framework.

III. News and Event Dynamics

US Government Shutdown Drags On; Key Statistics at Risk of Delay

The US entered a partial government shutdown starting October 1st, significantly impacting statistical releases. The BLS has recalled some staff to attempt completion of the inflation report, but the timely release of the CPI on October 15th is in question; the September employment report was already postponed. The data vacuum has amplified the elasticity of bets on "subsequent rate cuts" but also increased the risk of volatility at the time of a "concentrated catch-up release." If the shutdown is extended, the pace of SEC/CFTC approvals and enforcement may also slow, creating scheduling uncertainty for ETF applications and rule updates.

Fed Path and Market Pricing: Rate Cut Expectations Remain High and Volatile

Due to the widening data gap and divergent official statements, the probability of another 25bp rate cut in October–November is fluctuating at a high level in the interest rate futures market. If the shutdown ends quickly and subsequent data are not weak, a continued wait-and-see scenario cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if employment and inflation data further weaken, a faster easing path will gain more consensus. For crypto, the chain reaction of lower interest rates—weaker dollar—improving liquidity is typically bullish for price, but the policy uncertainty itself amplifies short-term volatility.

Publicly Traded Bitcoin Mining Companies  Adopt "Increase Production + Moderate Selling" as the Main Tune

Marathon (MARA) ended its 16-month strategy of complete HODLing in September, selling almost half (49.32%) of its monthly Bitcoin production for the first time. This significant shift in capital management occurred against the backdrop of persistently rising network difficulty and Hashprice compression. Despite MARA's operational hashrate increasing to 53.3 EH/s and successfully capturing over 5% of the global block rewards, the company's move likely aims to strengthen liquidity or finance its ongoing infrastructure expansion to cope with the current challenging mining environment, even as it maintains a substantial inventory of 52,850 BTC.

In addition, CleanSpark produced 629 BTC and sold 445 BTC (approximately $48.7–$49 million), with inventory rising to 13,011 BTC; Riot produced 445 BTC and sold 465 BTC, at an average selling price of approximately $113,043.

Conference Season and Capital Flows: Token2049 Warmth Lingers, ETFs Remain the Mid-Term Theme

Following Singapore's TOKEN2049 Week (9/29–10/5), institutional and developer enthusiasm continued into early October. The four main discussion threads post-conference were: Regulated Investment Vehicles (ETFs/Custody), RWA (Real World Assets), L2/L3 Roadmaps, and the Convergence of Mining—Data Centers—AI/HPC. On the capital front, spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT maintained net inflows, with monitoring by The Block and ETF.com showing impressive performance for the week and on October 8th. This passive and active incremental capital channel remains the key driver for the mid-term rally in the second half of this year.